North Korea has prepared for war. Does the U.S. dare to follow suit?

On August 15th local time, at the Moscow International Security Conference, the military attache of the DPRK Embassy in Moscow read out a speech by the DPRK Minister of National Defense Jong Kyong Thaek. In the speech, Minister Jong said "The issue of nuclear war on the Korean peninsula is no longer whether it will happen, but rather with whom and when it will take place."

If North Korea had issued a nuclear war warning before 2018, people could have taken it as tough rhetoric. However, under current circumstances, this has become a significant and serious issue that necessitates careful analysis.

There are four main differences between North Korea issuing a nuclear war warning this time compared to the past:

First, this warning was issued at an international venue. In the past, North Korea's nuclear war warnings were mostly issued during domestic speeches by senior officials. But this time it was at an international security conference, which clearly makes the warning stronger than in the past.

Second, this warning comes at a time when the situation in East Asia is extremely tense. The biggest difference between North Korea issuing a nuclear warning now and in the past is that in the past, although there was friction between China and the U.S., the problems were not major. Now the contradictions between the two superpowers China and the U.S. have reached a point where they are almost irreconcilable. Against this backdrop, the probability of conflict breaking out between China and the U.S. are constantly increasing, and a proxy war could erupt in the region over a single spark at any time.

Third, this warning was issued in the form of a formal speech by the DPRK Minister of National Defense. In the past, those issuing nuclear war warnings were mostly officials leaning more toward politics. But this time it came from the Minister of National Defense in a speech at an international conference, meaning North Korea has shifted the level of discussion from political to military. This is a very strong signal.

Fourth, the tone is different from the past. In the past, when North Korea declared nuclear war warnings, it was more of a warning and deterrent. But this time, the DPRK Minister of National Defense's words were very affirmative - "no longer an issue of whether it will happen, but rather an issue of with whom and when it will be launched." This decisive tone indicates the situation in East Asia has reached an extremely dangerous moment.

Why did North Korea issue a nuclear war warning at this time?

In my view, North Korea issued a nuclear war warning at this time mainly for three reasons:

One, the security situation in East Asia is worsening rapidly. I believe this is likely the time point when East Asia is most likely to erupt into large-scale war since the Vietnam War. The Korean War and Vietnam War that broke out in the 1950s were to some extent a continuation of World War II - local hot wars under the big backdrop of the Cold War were an inevitable result of the two poles struggling for territory. At that time, the big confrontation between East and West, the Korean War and Vietnam War were merely the results of the big confrontation. After those two wars, no large wars broke out again in this East Asian region, and the most fundamental reason was the lack of confrontation between major powers.

However, the situation now is different. Russia and NATO led by the U.S. have erupted into fierce proxy wars, and China and the U.S. are losing reconciliation space. Against this bigger backdrop, even without a direct China-U.S. conflict, proxy wars are on the verge of breaking out. The U.S. has been pushing for war to erupt near China's doorsteps, so the security situation in East Asia is worsening rapidly. Whether it is the Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, or the South China Sea, war could break out in any of these places.

Two, proxy wars in East Asia could erupt at any time. As analyzed previously, there are several potential places for proxy wars to break out in East Asia - between North and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula, between China and the U.S. and Japan in the East China Sea, the war for reunification in the Taiwan Strait, and possible conflicts over islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

Of these four points, the South China Sea is the least likely place for large-scale war to break out, because it lacks the conditions for major war. The strongest military power among South China Sea countries is Vietnam, but Vietnam absolutely does not dare fight against China, and China has no motive to conflict with Vietnam either. As for the Philippines, they don't even have a decent naval warship, let alone a proper fighter jet. The machine guns they use to fight terrorists were provided through Chinese aid. How could such a country fight a war? Just one fleet of China's South Sea Fleet could annihilate the country.

For a major war to truly break out in the South China Sea, the U.S. would have to participate directly, with China and the U.S. breaking out into large-scale conflict in the South China Sea. However, while the U.S. has no shortage of military bases around the South China Sea, it has very few deployed forces there. The U.S. can only rely on aircraft carrier groups to engage China. In the South China Sea, aircraft carrier groups simply cannot maneuver freely and would be sitting ducks for China. So the U.S. will not actually clash with China in the South China Sea. If China and the U.S. fight, the main battlefield will be Japan, absolutely not the South China Sea.

What the U.S. really hopes for is to drag China into a protracted war by using Taiwan. However, if conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, China will absolutely take Taiwan by thunderous force. The U.S. is also well aware of this, so it tries every means to arm Taiwan, but the gap from contending with the PLA is still too big now.

This means that if large-scale proxy wars break out between China and the U.S., the Korean Peninsula is the most likely place.

North Korea has prepared for war. In March this year, North Korea's state media reported that over 1.4 million young people signed up to join the military, with 800,000 people signing up in one day. Clearly, North Korea has already carried out war mobilization preparations and may have even expanded its military on a large scale. This means that on top of North Korea's original 1.3 million troops, it can rapidly expand to over 2 million. In contrast, South Korea's military has only 750,000 troops. Considering that the South Korean government still does not even have military command authority, and considering South Korea's societal reaction during the Cheonan incident 13 years ago, this country is very afraid of war. It goes without saying what the situation would be like when a country prepared for war meets a country afraid of war.

The nuclear war warning has three major benefits for North Korea.

The above three reasons determine that it is most beneficial for North Korea to issue a nuclear war warning now. Why is this the case? Because not only does North Korea now have nuclear warheads, but it also has ballistic missiles capable of delivering those warheads to the U.S. mainland. North Korea being able to hit the U.S. mainland with nuclear warheads means the risks for direct U.S. participation in the war would be very high. The North Korea of today is no longer the North Korea of 70 years ago. North Korea pulling its nuclear deterrence to the maximum at this time has three major benefits:

The first major benefit: overwhelming the opponent in momentum. War is often about courage and momentum. By issuing a nuclear war warning, North Korea is maximizing momentum. As long as you overwhelm the opponent in momentum, you've already won half the battle once the war starts.

The second major benefit: deterring direct U.S. participation in the war. If a second Korean War breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, if the U.S. directly participates, it will likely evolve into a world war. The reason is simple - if the U.S. participates, China cannot stand idly by. Once China gets involved, the main battlefield between China and the U.S. will not be the Korean Peninsula, but Japan's homeland. And once China and the U.S. directly clash to decide the winner, whoever wins will be the boss. Would the U.S. dare to take such a gamble? Moreover, fighting near China, the U.S. has no logistical supply, so it would be a doomed war. Therefore, North Korea's deterrence against the U.S. will be effective. And as long as the U.S. does not directly participate in the war, the Korean People's Army fighting the South Korean military will not lose.

Also, once war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, it will inevitably be the U.S. commanding the South Korean military, while China supports North Korea. That would make it a proxy war between China and the U.S., with the winner gaining control of the Western Pacific. If South Korea's military loses the war, the biggest gain for North Korea would be unifying the South.

The third major benefit: sending signals to all parties that North Korea has prepared for war. North Korea has been constantly sending out signals that it is prepared for war. An important implication behind North Korea sending out such signals is that if proxy wars really become unavoidable, North Korea is willing to take the gamble. This signal is very important because it will be a very important factor in the game between major powers. If China and the U.S. erupt into proxy war on the Korean Peninsula, once the U.S. loses it will have to withdraw from the Korean Peninsula. The stakes are too high for North Korea, so it has long been prepared. Think about it: North Korea has such advanced drones now, so its preparations are sufficient.

When North Korea recently issued nuclear war threats, China's overall response has been relatively "silent." This "silence" does not mean no response at all, but rather no attempt to exert any influence on North Korea's nuclear war threats. Why does China do this? Because all of this was caused by the U.S., North Korea's reaction is normal. Let me ask you if the U.S. deploys nuclear submarines to North Korea's doorstep, can North Korea not issue nuclear war threats? Therefore, China's silence objectively represents China's attitude. North Korea's nuclear war threats arising from evolutions on the Korean Peninsula are entirely the responsibility of the U.S. and South Korea, and have nothing to do with China. Facing this situation, China should of course remain "silent." North Korea's nuclear missiles are not aimed at China anyway. If the U.S. and South Korea do not adjust their attitudes and positions, what is China worried about?

North Korea has prepared for war. Does the U.S. dare to follow suit?