Why has the Philippines been so arrogant recently? Because since May, the U.S. has been strongly backing the Philippines! In early May, Philippine President Marcos Jr. visited the U.S. This visit is the key reason for the recent turmoil in the South China Sea. During the visit, the U.S. and the Philippines agreed to engage in in-depth cooperation in areas including military, agriculture, investment and education. Among these cooperation, the military cooperation is most conspicuous. The two sides signed the "Bilateral Defense Posture Guidance" aimed at deepening cooperation between the two militaries on land, at sea, in the air, in space and in cyberspace. It is obvious that this guidance document is an important document for the U.S. to provide military support to the Philippines. The U.S. intention is to have the Philippines act as a pawn and vanguard to provoke China. Sure enough, after Marcos' visit to the U.S., the conflicts between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have clearly escalated. This is the reason why the Philippines has stirred up the waters in the South China Sea again recently. The Philippines believes that it now has a backer, especially after signing the so-called defense guidance. The military cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines has become substantive. This is why Marcos has frequently provoked China recently.
What is the U.S.' legal basis for threatening China? This basis is the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. The U.S. means that if China really takes action against the U.S. coast guard, it will take military action against China. Since taking action against the U.S. coast guard will trigger the mutual defense treaty, then according to this logic, if China tows away or disposes of the Philippine grounded ships on Ren'ai Reef, the U.S. will activate the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty. According to the treaty, if either party's territory or its military forces, ships or aircraft in the Pacific are attacked, both countries will take action to meet the common dangers. It is clear that the U.S. wants to use the Philippines to provoke China and thus cause tensions in the South China Sea. And the Philippines' idea is to bluff and depend on U.S. power to validate its illegal occupation of China's islands and reefs. This is the fundamental reason why both sides are putting on this performance.
Then we can't help but ask, will China tow away or dispose of the grounded ships? In fact, for China, the value of towing away that broken ship is not that great, otherwise it would have been disposed of in the past 24 years. Now, Ren'ai Reef is actually under our control, and that broken ship has been surrounded by China and turned into an isolated island. The Philippines even has to rely on China's leniency to get supplies, so the grounded ship cannot change anything.
Then why is it so difficult for the Philippines to even deliver supplies now? It is because after China's island building in the South China Sea, our coast guard ships and naval vessels are near Ren'ai Reef. Our military bases are closer to Ren'ai Reef than those of the Philippines. This means that as soon as the Philippines sets out, we will know and can intercept them in time. No one can do anything about this. Coast guard ships and naval vessels are the most capable. Does the Philippines expect its supplies to be escorted by U.S. aircraft carrier fleets? Therefore, whether to tow away that grounded ship is not very significant. Moreover, as time goes by, the landing ship has become very dilapidated, and there is risk of it disintegrating at any time.
So China's original intention is that if there are no conflicts in the South China Sea, just let it age and disintegrate slowly. Time is on our side. Unless forced, China will consider the big picture and will not easily exacerbate contradictions. After all, ASEAN is now China's largest trading partner, and developing relations with ASEAN is of utmost importance to China. We cannot ignore the feelings of other neighboring countries.
However, if the Philippines' provocations become more and more frequent and serious, China will have to take countermeasures. When it comes to that, China's measures will certainly not be as simple as disposing of that grounded ship.
Back in 2012, incited by the U.S., the Philippines provoked the Huangyan Island incident, and China angrily took control of Huangyan Island. Even after China controlled Huangyan Island, the Philippines kept provoking China frequently, so China later took the "island building" measure. What did the Philippines and the U.S. get out of that round of game in the end? They actually got nothing, while China "planted" several artificial islands in the South China Sea, and the military bases are now also built!
During this process, some ASEAN countries including Singapore and Vietnam were also dissatisfied initially. But as the U.S. and the Philippines' provocations in the South China Sea went too far, and China occupied the moral high ground, and we also used our strength to educate Singapore and Vietnam, in the end everyone could only accept the facts. When China is determined to do something, no one can stop it. And everyone has seen the eventual results.
The measures China takes against the Philippines are not necessarily limited to towing away ships. There are many other strategies, such as directly reclaiming islands through land formation, who can stop China's actions? With naval vessels and military bases protecting, China can get things done as long as the timing is right. U.S. aircraft carriers are useless!
The U.S. claims that it has the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, but does the U.S. really dare to start a war with China in the South China Sea? On this point, some foreign media and scholars believe that if China really takes coercive measures to tow away the BRP Sierra Madre landing ship, there will definitely be a war between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea. In the author's view, they are thinking too highly and exaggerating about the U.S.! The U.S. simply doesn't have the guts! Why do I say that? Because 7 years ago, China and the U.S. did it once already. That time it was two U.S. aircraft carrier fleets. The Japanese-American general Harris, then commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, even clamored that the war with the PLA would be tonight. At that time, China's military leadership was stationed in the South China Sea, fully prepared and ready to engage the U.S. military forces at any time.
What happened in the end? Facing China's tight defense, the two U.S. aircraft carrier fleets retreated in the end. Why did they retreat? Because the U.S. knew it couldn't win! If the U.S. really fought that war, it would definitely become the Waterloo for the U.S. military. After the two U.S. carrier fleets withdrew, the PLA conducted the largest live-fire naval exercises since the founding of New China in the South China Sea, firing many missiles and artillery shells.
There is also a legend that one of the reasons why the U.S. military later withdrew was that China notified them of the coordinates of their carrier fleet at the last moment. This scared the hell out of the U.S., which hurriedly ordered the carriers to retreat. This also shows that China is very capable of attacking aircraft carriers. In a real war between China and the U.S., U.S. aircraft carriers would not dare to get close at all, otherwise they would just be sitting ducks. Given this situation, how can the U.S. fight against China?
Therefore, in the author's opinion, such threats from the U.S. are nothing more than bluffing!
Facing the provocations from the U.S.-Philippines collusion, China has spoken out clearly! As the author wrote in previous articles, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi urgently visited Singapore, Malaysia and Cambodia. A very important purpose was to state China's position on the South China Sea, and at the same time warn about the situation in the South China Sea, hoping that relevant countries could contribute to peace and stability in the South China Sea.
During State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visits to Singapore and Malaysia, he exchanged views with the two countries’ leaders on the current South China Sea situation and elaborated on China's position.
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Wang Yi said that over the years, thanks to the joint efforts of China and ASEAN, the situation in the South China Sea has achieved overall stability, which has also provided a good environment for their respective development. However, some forces, worried that the South China Sea may not be chaotic, have kept making waves in these waters. **Recently, they fanned the flames over the Ren'ai Reef issue, stirred up troubles and provoked confrontation between China and the Philippines, damaging the peace and tranquility of the South China Sea in order to serve their own geopolitical strategic purposes.** China hopes that regional countries will remain vigilant against the behind-the-scenes black hands, **and keep the steering wheel of maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea in their own hands. China has proposed many times its willingness to properly resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue. It is hoped that the Philippine side will abide by the consensus previously reached, cherish the accumulated mutual trust in the improvement of bilateral relations, and work toward the same direction with China as soon as possible to seek effective ways to manage maritime situations.**
Wang Yi emphasized that China is willing to work with ASEAN countries to speed up consultations on the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" and strive to reach an effective regional rule that is substantive and meaningful and in line with international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. We believe that China and ASEAN countries are fully capable and wise enough to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea and build our shared home well.
State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi's remarks are to tell Singapore and Malaysia about China's position, telling them that the situation in the South China Sea is deteriorating rapidly, but the responsibility does not lie with China, but with the U.S.-Philippines collusion in provoking China. Now the South China Sea has reached a critical moment. China's message is that Singapore and Malaysia need to be highly vigilant against the behind-the-scenes black hands, and communicate to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. China has proposed many times its willingness to properly resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogue, but the Philippines does not listen and insists on continued provocations. Once the situation gets out of control, then don't blame China!
It is customary for Chinese people to explain the ugly facts upfront, do their utmost to be benevolent, and only take action after the other party refuses to heed good advice. Now, the situation seems to have reached the point where China is warning all parties. This also means that after holding it in for 24 years, China is finally going to erupt. This is why China has publicly proposed that the Philippines remove its grounded ship. China can no longer endure this. China is showing its cards! If the Philippines continues to provoke China, then don't blame China for being ruthless!
As the author said, when China takes action, it will definitely not just be against the grounded ship, but a series of moves. Let's be patient and wait and see. The Philippines should continue and keep provoking to see how China will slap its face!
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